A Turkey ‘lost in transition’
What will Erdogan and Turkey be like a year from now? We try to include the effect that the upcoming elections may have. Among others, we want to give emphasis to relations with the European Union and Greece, of course.
Erdogan and rights don’t go together
Increasing oppression, prohibitions and tendency towards violence paint a frustrating picture as we approach the elections. The state of both Erdogan and Turkey in a year certainly depends on the nearing elections and the effects of their outcome.
Problems faced today cannot be cured overnight
One year from now, Turkey will not be a very different country than it is today. It will continue to be a country with problematic democracy, no rule of law, not recognizing the sovereignty rights of its neighbors, and causing suffering to its people.
Two anniversaries with risks for Greece
Οne may be confident about two major factors that will shape Turkish-Greek relations in 2023. By the summer, it is likely that citizens in both countries will have voted in critical elections. It would be careless to guess at the outcome of either of these contests.
An irreversible slump
I believe that even if Erdogan can again become president he has no choice other than to maintain Turkey in the Western Alliance no matter the cost. From the economic point of view, Turkey cannot leave the Customs Union, NATO and the European Council.
Turkey needs a restart with a new constitution
It is not easy to predict what Turkey will look like after the presidential and parliamentary elections currently scheduled for June 18, 2023. There is a strong possibility that the elections will be held earlier, probably in late April or sometime in May.
Turkey obsessed with Greece
The Turkish economy is in a very poor state and Erdogan will, reasonably, lose the election. You cannot know how an authoritarian leader will react, but we do know that the more the economy worsens, the more he’ll use other issues to draw votes.
Don’t expect a different government to change things
The closer the elections get, the more bets will go wild in Turkey and abroad. As of today there is a vast consensus among the pollsters and Turkey watchers that the present regime will lose the elections and the ruling coalition and Erdogan will be defeated.
A hot conflict as an alibi for Erdogan
For many years, the headscarf was banned in the civil service, parliament, and, for a while, universities. Women who covered their heads had a hard time finding jobs.
Maternity leave to be extended by three months
A new law amendment tabled in Parliament by the Labor and Social Security Ministry provides for the extension of maternity leave in the private sector from six to nine months.